誰偷走了我們的冬天

雖已時至12月中旬，下周已是冬至，昨兒氣溫竟回升至26度；也不必等50年後，香港其實現在已鮮有冬令。先前做了一份小功課，正是討論地球暖化的問題，但當中好些所謂的預測，根本已是當下的日常。我其實滿討厭「環保」這個詞彙，它令人覺得那是如同華東水災或極地餓民的一般慈善項目，總在生活日常之門外。這份小功課，即針對此觀念上的隔閡而鋪排，指出所謂環境的問題，落實到生活之日常，最先體現的，就是社會問題，尤表現在貧富之懸殊及其更兩極化。

地球與環境，不是遠在天邊等待我們發揮慈善星輝的救援對象，而是直接影響著我們的當下生活亦同時被我們當下行為影響著的，一個整體。

功課的結尾是草率的，關於民主作為一種出路，如何深化，是最近在思考的，有時間整理後，再談。(暫沒時間把功課譯成中文，只好貼出英文版)

(圖片源自︰Bruce Forster—Stone/Getty Images)

Impact of Global Warming on Hong Kong

This essay aims first to reveal the stance and measures taken by the government of HKSAR in responding to the crisis of global warming, and second to reify the impact of climate change on Hong Kong towards the end of this century. Possible measures of reducing the increasing rate of global warming will also be suggested.

1. Government Policy

As the reduction of the rate of increasing global warming is indispensable from regulation, I’ll first assess the role played by the HKSAR government in responding to the crisis of global warming, if there is any. In the Policy Address 2007-08 that has just been proclaimed in October, the government has indeed addressed the issue of global warming, yet in a rather inconsequential manner. It reads as the following:

“We have been taking vigorous measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. From 1995 to 2005, the energy intensity in Hong Kong, that is, energy consumed per unit GDP, dropped by 13%.” (2007-2008 Policy Address, HKSAR, No.37)

However, the “vigorous measures” are hard to be pinned down with specificity. No law has been enforced so far regarding the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), the two greenhouse gases which have been tremendously increased by 31% and 149% respectively above pre-industrial levels since 1750, and thereby contributing to the rise in average world temperature (rose 0.74 ± 0.18 ° C in the last hundred years) Explanation for this may lie in the report produced by the Environmental Protection Department:

“Under the Kyoto Protocol, Hong Kong, as part of China, is not required to limit greenhouse gas emissions, but must submit information on its greenhouse gas emissions and activities relating to climate change. This is now being compiled and shows that Hong Kong has nonetheless reduced annual greenhouse gas emissions by six per cent since 1990, to 6.5 tones per capita in 2005. The Government has also undertaken scientific research to assess the impact of climate change on Hong Kong.” (Environmental Performance Report 2007)

As no concrete measures regarding the reduction of CO₂ and/or CH₄ are to be located at the policy level, I’m afraid that the otherwise rather encouraging figure of reduction is more an unintended result of population increase. Within the 10 years between 1996 and 2006, the population of Hong Kong has increased from 6435, 500 to 6,864,000 (Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR). As migration from China mainland explains for a large part of population increase in Hong Kong (a daily quota of 150), the immigrants’ relatively marginalized economic status might explain for the drop in greenhouse gas emissions per capita.

In fact, regarding the two major sources of CO₂ emission, i.e., vehicle and power plant, what have been regulated by the government are only the emissions of respirable suspended particulates and nitrogen dioxide. It shows that the government’s concern is lying only with air pollution while global warming is yet to be on the agenda. It therefore indicates a fragmented perception where the local is taken not as a part constituting the global but rather as a separate entity.

However, the Environmental Performance Report has been correct in stating that the government has undertaken scientific research to assess the impact of climate change on Hong Kong. In the report called “Hong Kong’s Climate – What does the future hold?” done by the Hong Kong Observatory, the “future” of Hong Kong reads as the following:

“By the last decade of this century, the 10 years between 2090 and 2099, the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong can be expected to have risen by 3.5 ℃ above the 1961-1990 average of 23.0 ℃(…) the annual number of very hot days in summer will have risen from the 1961-1990 average of 11 days to 24 days. The annual number of hot nights in summer will see an even greater increase, from 8 nights to 30 nights. The annual number of cold days in winter will have dropped from 21 days to less than a day.”

And in terms of rainfall:

“Under the anticipated increasing rainfall trend, in the last 10 years of this century, that is, in the years 2090 to 2099, the average annual rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters would be about 2430 mm, or 216 mm more than the 1961-1990 average of 2214 mm. (…) Apart from the overall upward trend, the year-to-year variability in rainfall would also increase in the 21st century.”

Nevertheless, despite the sophisticated presentation of the research findings, what do all these figures mean? What are the living conditions of all creatures and environment in Hong Kong by the prescribed time period? Unfortunately, despite their expertise, the Hong Kong Observatory offered no answer to these questions.

2. Impacts of Global Warming on Hong Kong: A Daily Life Projection

It is then the humble task of this essay trying to project the possible scenario of life in Hong Kong by the end of the 21^st century, under the impact of global warming. I’ll assess the possible effects of global warming one by one, and with a perspective of interrelatedness between the local and the global.

2.1 Rise of temperature

The increase in average temperature and the almost disappearance of winter in Hong Kong will lead to a sharp increase in the annual consumption of energy, mainly for air-conditioning or other cooling mechanisms. This will speed up the depletion of limited global natural resources, e.g. coal, which is the major fuel used in the local power plant. Certainly, it goes without saying that the increased consumption of energy will further accelerate the rise of world temperature.

Although the power plants have put in some effort to develop green energy, it doesn’t imply that coal burning will be replaced with the introduction of new technology. In whichever case, the cost of electricity will go up, either due to the increasing scarcity of coal or the technological investment on green energy. As a result, those who’re weak in economic power and unable to afford the increased payment for electricity will be left to live in the lengthened days of heat, which would possible lead to health problems especially among the elderly and young children.

In fact, this is already happening. In the recent summers, there were increasing cases being reported on elderly who couldn’t afford to pay for air-conditioning and thus been attacked by heatstroke. It only means that the number of people attacked or even killed by heatstroke will be on the increase in the foreseeable future.

The city planning in Hong Kong, which unfortunately develops to the interests of the land developers, will make the situation of temperature rise even worse, especially among the poor. If the land developers are still allowed to maximize land use by building screening blocks, the residents of the old districts in the neighborhood who used to be able to enjoy sea breezes and thus consuming less energy for air-conditioning, would be denied from such. The screen-building blocks on the one hand increase energy consumption (by trapping the heat within the community), while on the other hand jeopardize the living standard of the poor in the neighborhood.

2.2 Agriculture failure: rising price of food

Agriculture is one of the sectors that will be tremendously devastated by the effect of global warming. Although Hong Kong has long lost her agricultural industry, the effect can still be revealed in her dependency on China mainland for food supply. The foreseeable crop failure on China mainland due to both flooding and drought as resulted from global warming, will push up the price of staple food in Hong Kong as well. In fact, this impact is already visible. Prices of staple food and meat from China mainland have increased sharply in the past few months, of which crop failure and poultry lost caused by climate change also made its contribution, in addition to other economic factors.

Once again, it means that the situation will become even worse by the end of this century where general food shortage would be a major problem in China and the group of the most economically deprived would be facing starvation. In Hong Kong, starvation may still not be conceivable, but a decrease in the overall living standard is only to be expected especially among the poor, as a greater proportion of family income has to be spent on food.

2.3 Increased risk of global outbreaks of infectious diseases

The rise in temperature is also favorable to the spread of diseases world wide, as virus become active in warm temperature. The lengthened days of warm weather has greatly increased the risk of the whole humanity falling victim to fatal diseases like SARS and H5N1 bird flu. There will also be increasing threat from malaria and dengue fever.

In view of the increasing human mobility around the world (in addition to the migration of birds or other creatures), outbreak of infectious disease is never a problem restricted to the local, but rather poses threat at the global level, as tragically witnessed during the crisis of SARS.

2.4 Extinction of marine species

The retreat of glacial and the rise in sea level which normally cause serious flooding in coastal areas may not have that strong effect on Hong Kong as her natural harbor is steep enough to reduce the impact. However, the marine life in the seawater of Hong Kong may be endangered due to the increase in sea temperature, including the possible death of coral reef and extinction of different fish species.

2.5 Drought and deluge

As stated in the report done by the Hong Kong Observatory, there will also be an increase in the year-to-year variability of rainfall, which means an alternation between years with very high and very low rainfall. In the dry years, there will obviously be the pressure of water shortage. As the supply of fresh water in Hong Kong comes mainly from the purchase of Dongjiang water in China mainland, if there’s drought in the entire Guangdong province, then Hong Kong will suffer from severe water shortage and the cost of fresh water will go high up. The basic human need for water once again becomes a matter to be settled by purchasing power, which certainly puts the poor in stern situation. Moreover, dry weather will increase the possibility of wildfire in Hong Kong, which will lead to deforestation and hence contributes to temperature increase in a vicious cycle.

Yet in times of heavy rain, the remaining local farming in Hong Kong may suffer great loses and not be able to survive. It will lead to further deforestation where the deserted farmland will probably be used for property development.

2.6 Concluding on the overall impact

To conclude on the impact of global warming on Hong Kong, the change in climate and the subsequent disturbances in the ecosystem will be largely realized in the widening gap between the living standard of the rich and the poor, with the latter bearing much of the consequences of the environmental crisis though contributed more by the former. Yet the “poor” and the “rich” are not two static entities. Rather, with the passing of time, people (mostly the lower middle class who constitute a core part in Hong Kong’s population) will be experiencing a downward mobility to become less affluent and adding to the “poor” as the basic cost of living will become higher and higher (prices of food, water, and medication would be on the rise with the effect of global warming increases at an accelerated rate).

Increased poverty, together with food and water shortage, and increasing risks of vital diseases will certainly lead to social unrest and put the general populace living under greater stress and panic. Cases of psychosis will also be on the increase following from that, causing losses of life due to either suicide or related violence. All these combined factors will produce nothing but an appalling scenario of what life may possible become by the end of this century. It should also be reminded that such a scenario has not included the negative effects of globalization in areas other than environment.

However, it then must be pointed out that this far from desirable future is formulated based on the assumption that no measure has been taken to reduce the rate of the increase of global warming. The implication is that, if, and only if, our generation of the humanity is willing and be able to do something to slow down the rate of global warming, there is still the possibility of saving the future generations from living in desperation.

3. Cultural Politics: Working towards Interrelatedness

Yet, although the survival of all humanity and the earth is concerned, reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases is never an easy task to be accomplished. In view of the consumerist lifestyle needed to be altered, and the immediate interests of the TNCs to be hampered, enormous resistance is only what to be expected.

In this fight for the survival of all species on earth, culture is revealed of its utter importance. Here, I’m not referring to “culture” as a domain independent from other sectors in the society (e.g., science, economics), but rather as the mean to bridge the conceptual gaps between those actually interrelated sectors for political ends.

The first task cultural politics should partake is to make known of the devastating effects of global warming to the general public, i.e., to translate the scientific codes (of natural science) into imaginable life projections. The second step as closely related to the first one, is to bridge the conceptual “distance” between the local and the global. The devastating picture of life as translated from the scientific figures is not happening at some remote areas on earth, but that right at the core of everyday life at the local. The third step is then to bring the crisis even closer by presenting the concrete causal relationship between consumerist behavior and global warming, e.g., for every additional car driving on the road, a certain amount of greenhouse gases will be emitted, adding to a particular % of increase in the global warming effect.

Apart from the reunion of “scientific” and “cultural” languages, the disciplinary division between social science and humanity in the knowledge structure since the 19^th century should also be demised. Data of the social world should never be interpreted without taking into consideration values of humanity. Those social scientists (e.g., Lawrence Summers) who used to take disguise in the “neutrality” of their expertise but in reality imposing injustice with that “neutrality”, can no longer be disavowed of their social responsibilities. As a result, the injustice between “north and south” embedded in the issue of global warming (and other environmental crisis) should be unveiled, especially those otherwise justified by “neutral scientific figures” (e.g., lives of people from the north are valued higher than those from the south by comparing the income per capita).

Finally, if the very aim of deploying cultural politics is to reduce the increasing rate of global warming and injustice, it should go beyond the mere psychological effect of invoking desperation and indignation. The energy of hope gives the final touch to empower cultural representation for political ends, for only with the promise of hope should changes in value system and hence resultant changes in (consumerist) behavior be rendered useful and meaningful.

However, as the sphere of cultural politics is not exclusive, the TNCs (e.g., power plants, oil companies and car manufacturing companies), whose immediate interests are at stake, would certainly enter the sphere and compete for the cultural interpretation of global warming. With their indisputable advantage in capital versus their competitors, it’s not surprising if the TNCs were to gain the upper hand in the contesting sphere of cultural politics. Therefore, regulation should always go hand in hand with cultural politics, with one imposing restriction on behavior and the other targeting at changes in value system.

4. Possible Measures

I thus conceived several measures of reducing the rate of global warming that I believe should be enforced at the policy level in the context of Hong Kong.

4.1 Private cars

As a city with a population of 6,864,000, the total number of private car license issued in Hong Kong is 366000 (by August 2007), which gives to a ratio of around eighteen people owning one car. Yet for a city whose public transport system has been so well developed with buses, mini buses, the metro and the railway connecting almost all the places, the high ratio of private car ownership reveals more of the need for social status than that for transportation.

To reduce the number of cars on roads at one time, Hong Kong may follow other cities by introducing the odd/even license number driving on alternate day. Apart from this, I’d also suggest that the issue of global warming should be incorporated into the test for getting a driving license. Just as the drivers-to-be should be notified of the possible dangers on the road, they should also be aware of the emission of carbon dioxide and its effect on global warming whenever they drive. Although this may not stop people from buying cars, it may help to caution the drivers to drive less.

4.2 Land development

As land in Hong Kong has always been fully utilized to maximize all gross floor area, the highly condensed residential buildings have resulted in the screening effect, which blocks the flow of natural breezes and traps the heat. This leads to the increase in the consumption of energy (e.g., air-conditioning), and also brings down the living standard of those in the neighborhood who couldn’t afford to pay for a more costly electricity bill. As a result, measures should be taken to restrict the minimal distance between buildings and the height of them. I’d further suggest the imposition of a certain ratio between gross floor area and greenbelt area. That is, for an additional amount increase in gross floor area, there should also be an increase in the area for plantation excluding the gross floor area, and green areas allotted to the rooftop or the verandas of the households are not counted. In this way, the maximization of gross floor area can be checked.

This regulation (with adjustments) should also be enforced to land development in the New Territories, avoiding deserted farmland from turning into construction sites.

4.3 Restrict emission of greenhouse gases from vehicle and power plant

Finally, the government should impose restrictions onto the emission of greenhouse gases from both vehicle and power plant, just like what has been done with the emissions of respirable suspended particulates and nitrogen dioxide. The government should also formulate a timetable stating the stages of reduction rate and actualize it.

5. Conclusion

I’m not unaware of the fact that the above suggestions at the policy level should sound like daydreaming to myself if there’s no political reform in Hong Kong in the light of democracy. But it could always be a two-way process. While a democratic political structure may allow the voices for the cause of environment preservation more easier to be heard in the government and put the activists in a better position to obtain resources for their cause, momentum gathered in the civil society for environmental moment may also accelerate the process of democracy, not only in the polity but within the civil society as well.

p.s. 漏掉了照明系統的能源節約一項。那個什麼幻彩詠香江和徹夜的廣告照明，都在把地球平白無故地燒掉；當然他們會告訴你，說那叫經濟效益。是的，的確沒錯，而這筆效益裏頭，卻從不會把環境、社會成本紀錄在案。讓那個叫地球的支付去吧﹗